Turkey lira tumble evokes echoes of 2018 meltdown

FILE PHOTO: Turkish lira banknotes are seen in this illustration

LONDON (Reuters) - The Turkish lira's rapid decline in recent days has rung echoes of tumbles past such as the 2018 meltdown which pushed the country into an economic crisis and sent ripples through other emerging markets.

After the lira broke through the threshold of 8 to the dollar on Monday, markets are trying to read the runes of how much further policy makers will let the lira slide with the currency having lost nearly 30% since the start of the year.

"It now feels very 2018 and the questions are now how low the lira can sink and when the CBRT will be forced to go, tail between its legs, to ask (President Tayyip) Erdogan for an emergency rate hike," said Tim Ash at BlueBay Asset Management.

"Is that at 8.50, or 9?"

Below are three charts illustrating economic and markets pressure points for Turkey, where the currency is enduring its eighth straight year of losses, having lost more than 80% of its value in the past decade.

DWINDLING RESERVES

Reserves are dwindling fast, and efforts to shore up the pressured lira have torn a sizeable hole in the central bank's war chest. Goldman Sachs estimated that policy makers intervened to the tune of $16 billion in August alone.

By traditional rules of thumb, reserves should cover the equivalent of three months of imports - Turkey is forecast to hit 2.6 by year-end.

"Turkey’s import coverage by FX reserves is no longer adequate," Phoenix Kalen at Societe Generale said in a recent note.

GRAPHIC: Reserves import cover - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xklpymjrkpg/Turkey%20reserves%20import%20cover.PNG

POLITICAL QUICKSAND

Syria, Libya, Nagorno Karabakh - Turkey's geopolitical tangles and affiliations have seen it at odds with one or the other major power at most times.

The latest standoff between Erdogan and French President Emmanuel Macron over the treatment of Muslims has done little to soothe frayed nerves. And with Joe Biden on track to win the race for the White House, fresh sanctions could be adding to the pressure on Turkey's already strained markets.

"If opinion polls are proved to be incorrect and President (Donald) Trump is re-elected on Nov. 3, this would bring the severely battered lira some respite following its precipitous fall," said RaboResearch's global head Jan Lambregts. "However, as things stand, the lira is on the verge of a total meltdown."

GRAPHIC: Turkish lira timeline - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/oakvenjrwpr/Lira%20timeline.PNG

ROLLING OVER

Turkey's external public debt burden is seen as manageable, but its companies and financial institutions face hefty repayments of around $13.3 billion in the last quarter of 2020. November is a key month for the country's financial institutions, which have $3.7 billion coming due. A weaker lira will add to the pressure on firms and financial institutions needing to roll over hard-currency debt. (Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/3ozDcb1)

Comments

Inside the Magnificent Minoan Palace of Knossos in Crete

The Minoan palace at Knossos. Credit: Gary Bembridge /Wikimedia Commons/ CC-BY-2.0 The Palace of Knossos, located about five kilometers (three miles) south of Heraklion on Kephala hill, was the largest of all the Minoan palaces in Crete. It was also at the core of the highly sophisticated civilization that flourished on the island over 3,500 years ago. The discovery of the Minoan Palace of Knossos The discovery and subsequent excavation of the palace dates back to the beginning of the twentieth century. Before then, Knossos had only served as a place mentioned in Greek mythology. The first modern scholar to take a serious interest in the area was the German Heinrich Schliemann, who in 1870 had excavated the site believed to be Troy. Schliemann was certain that a major Minoan palace lay hidden near Heraklion, but the Ottoman authorities who still ruled the island at the time denied any permission to dig there. Years afterward, the British archaeologist Arthur Evans, inspired b...

The World’s Oldest Living Olive Tree is on Crete

The most ancient olive tree in the world, in Crete. Credit: Dimitra Damian/Greek Reporter The oldest olive tree in the world is located in the village of Ano Vouves of Kissamos in Chania, Crete. The ancient tree is 3000 years old, as determined by the international scientific community. The ancient olive tree in Vouves has a trunk with a circumference of 12.5 meters (41 feet), and a diameter of 4.6 meters (15 feet). It belongs to the local tree variety of tsounati, and was grafted at a height of 3 meters onto a wild olive tree. Because of the grafting, its trunk has been so beautifully shaped by nature that it resembles a sculpture. In 1990, after a unanimous decision in the prefecture of Chania, the Vouves Olive Tree was declared a Natural Monument of great importance due to its status as the world’s oldest tree of its kind. The oldest olive tree still produces high-quality olives The fruits of the ancient olive tree make the best olive oil in the world, making the area...

Water Shortages On Islands Plaguing Greece This Summer

Tap water is a precious commodity on the Greek islands and one that is in short supply. Credit: Ishwah Murth Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 Island water shortages and stoppages are plaguing Greece this summer. Promoted for its beautiful seawater surrounding all the Greek isles and its entire coastline, many islands are suffering from a lack of quantity — and quality of tap water. Turning on the tap and finding an abundant flow of water has become a basic expectation in civilized society of the 21st century, particularly when you are on a vacation that is meant to offer a bit of away-from-home luxury. However, on some Greek islands, access to whiskey is easier to come by than water. Greek island water shortages and water stoppages are common nowadays. Carol Berkley, from London, who is vacationing at an AirBnB property in the area of Marathi on Mykonos told Greek Reporter, “We had just come back from the beach. There are four of us here on the property....

Εκσυγχρονισμός του στόλου: Στο τραπέζι δύο προτάσεις για αγορά φρεγατών

Ο πρωθυπουργός Κυριάκος Μητσοτάκης ανακοίνωσε την Τετάρτη ότι είναι ανάγκη να ξεκινήσει άμεσα το εξοπλιστικό πρόγραμμα των ενόπλων δυνάμεων. Η κρίση με την Τουρκία έδειξε ότι στο επίκεντρο είναι η ενίσχυση του Πολεμικού μας Ναυτικού. Η οικονομική κρίση των τελευταίων ετών σε συνδυασμό με το μεγάλο κόστος απόκτησης νέων μονάδων είχε ως αποτέλεσμα να μείνει πίσω ο εκσυγχρονισμός του Πολεμικού Ναυτικού. Σύμφωνα με το ρεπορτάζ του Open, η απόφαση του Γενικού Επιτελείου είναι γνωστή εδώ και καιρό: Πρέπει να αγοραστούν νέες φρεγάτες. Το Πολεμικό Ναυτικό έδωσε τις προδιαγραφές και αμέσως ξεχώρισαν δύο προτάσεις, οι γαλλικές φρεγάτες Belhara και το αμερικανικό πλοίο πολλαπλών ρόλων MMSC. Κύριος στόχος ένα πλοίο που θα μπορεί να επιχειρεί στο Αιγαίο αλλά και την Ανατολική Μεσόγειο. ...

Greek, Armenian Genocide Recognized by the Netherlands

Greek civilians from Pontus flee their homes during the genocide. Public domain Greek, Armenian and Syriac genocide committed by the Ottoman Empire in the beginning of the 20th century were recognized by the Netherlands earlier in the week. The move follows the overwhelming adoption by the Dutch parliament of a resolution noting that the government “still does not recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915 [perpetrated] by the Ottoman Empire (in which also the Arameans, Assyrians, and the Pontic Greeks were victims).” The resolution stated that “there is more urgency than ever for countries to clearly speak out about the past in order to advance reconciliation and prevent repetition in the future.” The genocide of 1915 was committed by the Ottoman Turks and Kurds against the Syriac people and occurred parallel to the genocides of Armenians and Greeks, which was not only reduced to the region of Pontus, but all Greeks in the Ottoman Empire. The resolution said that 1.5 milli...

Speaking English Using Greek: Zolotas’ Historic Speech to World Bankers

Zolotas was director of the Bank of Greece when he famously spoke at a conference in English using Greek words. Public domain Many Greeks recall the speeches in English — peppered with Greek-origin words and phrases — given by economist and politician Xenophon Zolotas in the late 1950s. Zolotas was director of the Bank of Greece when he appeared in front of an audience at an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development conference in 1959. He delivered two speeches in English using Greek words to emphasize the wealth of the Greek language and the fact that countless Greek words enrich English. Greek remains a language which greatly enriches international scientific discourse; more than any other, it is the language which developed, shaped and expressed the beginning of most scientific theories, philosophical thoughts, and literature in most of the modern-day languages of the Western world. Zolotas’ speech delivered on Oct. 2, 1959 Kyrie, It is Zeus’ anathema on our epoch ...

Έκανε το εμβόλιο της Johnson και δεν μπορεί να περπατήσει

Την περιπέτειά του μετά από τον εμβολιασμό του με το σκεύασμα της Johnson & Johnson περιγράφει μέσω του Instagram o Γιώργος Βαγιαννίδης. Όπως αναφέρει στην ανάρτησή του, έκανε το εμβόλιο την 1η Σεπτεμβρίου και σήμερα νοσηλεύεται σε νοσοκομείο αφού δεν μπορεί να σταθεί όρθιος, ούτε να περπατήσει. Μάλιστα δημοσιεύει και φωτογραφίες από το νοσοκομείο. Δείτε αναλυτικά όλα όσα αναφέρει στην ανάρτησή του: Καλησπέρα σας, ονομάζομαι Γεώργιος Βαγιαννίδης. Επειδή τον τελευταίο καιρό έχουν ακουστεί πολλά, οφείλω να ξεκαθαρίσω τη θέση μου, για να μην υπάρχουν περαιτέρω αερολογίες σχετικά με την κατάσταση της υγείας μου. Τετάρτη, 1 Σεπτεμβρίου, έκλεισα το ραντεβού για τον εμβολιασμό μου (Johnson’s and Johnson’s). Να τονίσω πως ήταν καθαρά δική μου επιλογή και ΚΑΝΕΝΑΣ δε μου προέτρεψε να το κάνω. Πήγα λοιπόν στο ΓΝ Κατερίνης και το έκανα. Όλα αυτά γύρω στις 16.00. Πολύ τυπικά τα πράγματα. Το μόνο που μου είπαν είναι «Περίμενε...

Κορονοϊός Ινδία: Για πρώτη φορά πάνω από 50.000 κρούσματα σε ένα 24ωρο

Η Ινδία ανακοίνωσε σήμερα, Πέμπτη 30 Ιουλίου, πάνω από 50.000 νέα ημερήσια κρούσματα για πρώτη φορά, λόγω της αύξησης των μολύνσεων στις μη αστικές περιοχές σε μια περίοδο κατά την οποία η κυβέρνηση χαλαρώνει περαιτέρω τους περιορισμούς στις μετακινήσεις και το εμπόριο. Το τελευταίο 24ωρο καταγράφηκαν 52.123 νέα κρούσματα, σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία των ομοσπονδιακών αρχών υγείας, με τον συνολικό αριθμό των κρουσμάτων να φθάνει σχεδόν το 1,6 εκατομμύριο. Το ίδιο διάστημα, 775 άνθρωποι έχασαν τη ζωή τους λόγω του κορονοϊού, με τον συνολικό αριθμό των θανάτων να πλησιάζει τους 35.000 –που αν και είναι χαμηλός συγκριτικά με τον συνολικό αριθμό των κρουσμάτων, δεν εμφανίζει ιδιαίτερες τάσεις επιβράδυνσης. Ενώ οι μεγάλες πόλεις, όπως το Νέο Δελχί και το Μουμπάι, καταγράφουν επιβράδυνση στον αριθμό των κρουσμάτων, τα περιστατικά στις αγροτικές περιοχές συνεχίζουν να αυξάνονται με αλματώδεις ρυθμούς, προκαλώντας ιδιαίτερη ανησυχία στους ειδικούς που φοβο...

Απίστευτο σκηνικό με Άδωνι: «Ευχαριστώ το Mega που δείχνει ποια μαγαζιά θα κλείσουμε αύριο»

Στην εκπομπή LIVE NEWS του MEGA παρενέβη ο υπουργός Ανάπτυξης και Επενδύσεων, Άδωνις Γεωργιάδης, αναφορικά με τις παραβάσεις που παρατηρούνται στους κανόνες του click away, όπου οι πολίτες διαλέγουν από το πεζοδρόμιο τα προϊόντα, και παραλαμβάνουν επιτόπου. Το Mega εδειχνε εικόνες από τα μαγαζιά στο Χαλάνδρι και ο κ. Γεωργιάδης με παρέμβασή του, είπε: «Με ενημέρωσαν για το βιντεο της εκπομπής. Μου είπαν ότι κάποια καταστήματα παραβιάζουν τους κανόνες και αυτό φαίνεται στην κάμερα. Το ίδιο έγινε σήμερα με τα καταστήματα που δείξατε χθες στην Ερμού. Όσα περισσότερα καταστήματα δείχνετε και συμπληρώνετε την ελεγκτική δράση του κράτους, θα κλείνουν την επόμενη μέρα. Θα κλείνετε μόνος σας κάθε μέρα και ένα κατάστημα και το πρόστιμο θα το χρεώνω στον κ. Ευαγγελάτο και μπράβο που το κάνετε!».

A Carefree Sustainable Vacation Awaits You at the Byzantine Mansion Turned Hotel in Monemvasia

A Byzantine-era mansion turned hotel a few kilometers away from the magnificent castle of Monemvasia has opened its doors for the Summer of 2020, as Greece is gradually relaxing its Covid-19 restrictions. Kinsterna Hotel is a model of autonomy and sustainability, functioning harmoniously within a rich and lively natural environment. But more importantly, it adheres to all health and safety regulations and it’s size enables social distancing, which is of paramount importance in the coronavirus times. Tables in the spacious gardens have been placed at a distance from each other as well as the deck chairs next to the pool. Privacy, cleanness, and social distancing are the major preoccupation of the owners of this gem of a hotel. It is the ideal launching pad for discovering the amazing rock of Monemvasia. A small island connected to the mainland town by a 400-meter causeway. The surviving buildings and defensive structures of the fortress include impressive rampar...

Qoutes

Search This Blog